After a vertical rally, will bitcoin see a waterfall decline? What are the critical levels to watch on the way down? Let’s study the charts.
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back said in a recent panel discussion that the developments in the crypto space are happening at a much faster pace than the dotcom era. Though numerous new ideas and use cases are being generated on the application of this technology, Back believes we are still in early stages of what can be built.
The fundamental developments in the blockchain and crypto space have forced many initial critics to backtrack their statements and adopt the technology. The head of the Bank of International Settlements, Augustin Carstens, said in a recent interview that many central banks are working towards launching digital versions of their national currencies and the BIS is supporting them. Just a few months back, Carstens warned of numerous risks to banks who went down this path.
After the surge from the lows, the next question in every trader’s mind is whether the short-term top is in place or is this dip a buying opportunity before the uptrend resumes. This is difficult to predict but the charts give a fair idea on what to expect. Let’s analyze the charts of the major cryptocurrencies and establish the critical levels to watch out for.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a wall of resistance close to $12,500 on June 28 and 29. Failure of the bulls to resume the uptrend attracted profit-booking. Currently, the price has again dipped back to the 20-day EMA. If the uptrend has to resume, the bulls will have to defend $10,740.35–$9977.13 support zone. A break of this zone can drag the price to the 50-day SMA.
The BTC/USD pair will be in a bear grip if it breaks down of the 50-day SMA. Usually, vertical rallies are followed by sharp pullbacks. Hence, it is difficult to pinpoint the level from where the pair will turn around.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has also dipped close to the midpoint. This points to a range formation in the near term. A consolidation after such a sharp rally will be a positive sign. It will indicate that the traders are not running to the exit. We шиll wait for the correction to end before suggesting a long position once again.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) came close to the overhead resistance of $320.840 but could not close (UTC time frame) above it, hence, it did not trigger our buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. The digital currency reversed direction from $320.840 and has corrected back to the 20-day EMA.
If the bulls fail to defend the 20-day EMA, a drop to the 50-day SMA is possible. This is a critical support because the price has not closed below it since Feb. 18 of this year. Hence, we will closely watch the price action at this level and might suggest long positions if the price rebounds sharply from it. On the upside, the $320.840–$366 zone will continue to act as a stiff resistance.
Contrary to our expectation, if the ETH/USD pair plunges below the 50-day SMA, it will turn negative. The first support is at $225. If this level breaks, the correction can extend to $175.
XRP/USD
Ripple (XRP) turned down from the 20-day EMA and has corrected to the trendline of the symmetrical triangle. A breakdown of the triangle will be a negative sign and it has a pattern target of $0.26113. However, the bulls will try to stem the fall at $0.35660 and below it at $0.27795.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI has dipped below the midpoint. This suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Contrary to our assumption, if the XRP/USD pair rebounds from the trendline of the triangle, the bulls will try to ascend the moving averages and break out of the resistance line of the triangle once again. We do not find any bullish patterns at the current levels.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin cash (BCH) could not sustain above the 20-day EMA on June 29 and 30. It plummeted back below the 50-day SMA on June 30 and is currently trying to stay above $383.30, which is the intraday low of June 27. If the support holds, the bulls will again try to scale $450, above which, a rally to $515.35 is probable. Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is below the midpoint, which shows range-bound action in the short term.
If $383.30 gives way, a drop to the support line of the channel is likely. We anticipate buyers to step in and buy a dip to this support. We will watch the price action and suggest a long position if we find a strong bounce off it.
On the contrary, if the bears sink the BCH/USD pair below the support line of the channel, the trend will turn negative and a drop to $280 is probable.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) bounced off sharply from the 50-day SMA and reached the resistance line of the channel on June 29, but the bulls could not break out of it. The price reversed direction on June 30 and slumped below the 20-day EMA once again.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the center. This points to a consolidation in the near term. The LTC/USD pair might remain range bound between $111 and $141 for the next few days.
Our view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below $111. In such a case, the pair can correct to the support line of the channel. A break of this critical support will indicate a trend change. We will wait for the bulls to resume the uptrend before proposing a trade in it.
EOS/USD
The attempt by the bulls to push EOS back inside the ascending channel hit a wall at $6.3995 on June 30 and the price plunged below the support line of the channel once again. Currently, the digital currency is trying to stay above $5.550. If this level holds, we anticipate another attempt by the bulls to propel the price back inside the channel.
If the support at $5.550 breaks down, the EOS/USD pair can plummet to the next support at $4.4930. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows that the bears have the upper hand. We will wait for the pair to show strength before recommending a long position in it.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) is attempting to hold the 50-day SMA. Barring the dip on May 9 and 10, it has not closed (UTC time frame) below the 50-day SMA since December 31 of last year. Hence, it becomes an important support to watch out for. If the price bounces off the 50-day SMA, it will try to resume the uptrend and scale above $40.
However, if the bears sink the BNB/USD pair below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to $28.7168. A break of this level will turn the trend in favor of bears. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has dipped below the midpoint, which suggests consolidation in the short term. We will watch the price action for a couple of days before suggesting a trade in it.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) is facing selling just above the 20-day EMA, which is flattening out. The RSI has also dipped just below the midpoint, which suggests balance between buyers and sellers. Support on the downside is at $175 and resistance is at $255.620.
If the BSV/USD pair plummets below $175, it can drop to $152.015, which is the 50% retracement level of the recent leg of the up-move. On the other hand, if the price bounces off $175, the pair will remain range-bound for a few weeks. It will pick up momentum on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $255.620. Currently, we do not find any reliable buy setups.
ADA/USD
Cardano (ADA) broke below the 50-day SMA on June 30, which is a bearish sign. It can now drop to $0.077 and below it to $0.073. The 20-day EMA is turning down and the RSI has dropped below 50. Both the moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which suggests that bears have the upper hand in the short term.
If the bulls defend the $0.073–$0.077 support zone, the ADA/USD pair might remain range bound for a few days. It will turn bullish on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.10. Until then, we remain neutral on the pair. If the bears sink the price below $0.073, the slide can extend to $0.060.
TRX/USD
Tron (TRX) has been holding the 50-day SMA for the past four days but is struggling to move up. If the 50-day SMA cracks, the next support is at $0.0290177. We expect this support to hold but if the bears sink the price below this level, the slide can extend to the trend line of the ascending channel. The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is just below 50, which points to a consolidation in the near term.
If the TRX/USD pair bounces off the 50-day SMA and rises above $0.0357, it can move up to $0.040. We anticipate stiff resistance between $0.040 and the resistance line of the ascending channel. The pair will pick up momentum on a breakout and close above the channel. We do not find any reliable buy setup at the current levels.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.
