After a strong bounce from key support levels, many cryptocurrencies are now struggling to break above the 20-day EMA.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst first quarter on record. Compared to that, Bitcoin only fell about 10% over the same period, which shows clear outperformance. The resilience of Bitcoin (BTC) in the current crisis shows that it has arrived on the big scene and that it can weather a storm better than some of the traditional asset classes. This is likely to attract several institutional players to Bitcoin.
Now, what can we hope for during the second quarter? Bitcoin has a very important halving event coming up next month. This has been positive for the price action during the previous two halvings. This time, however, analysts are divided. Nonetheless, the second quarter, barring the dip in 2018, has always closed in the green. This shows that cyclically, Bitcoin’s price is likely to rise in this quarter.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Another positive is that crypto traders are buying the dips instead of panicking and dumping their positions. A report by Coinbase shows that there was record-breaking trading activity during and after the crash on March 12. Bitcoin’s trading surged to six times the average during this period and the number of active traders also swelled to 3 1/2 times the average.
While the buyers are keen to enter on dips, is the buying interest sustaining at higher levels or will the cryptocurrencies revisit their recent lows? Let’s study the charts to find out.
The bears are not allowing Bitcoin (BTC) to sustain above the 20-day exponential moving average. This is a negative sign. Both the weighted and exponential moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index is in the negative zone, which suggests that bears have the upper hand.
BTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the BTC/USD pair turns down from the current levels and plummets below the support at $5,660.47, a retest of the critical long-term support at $5,000 is possible. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $5,600.
Conversely, if the pair turns around from the current levels or bounces off the support at $5,660.47, the bulls will try to carry it to the stiff psychological resistance at $7,000. A breakout of this level will be a huge positive and is likely to result in a rally to $9,000. Though the 50-day simple moving average at $7,837 might act as a resistance, we expect it to be crossed.
Ether (ETH) has formed a descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a breakdown and close (UTC time) below $117.09. This setup has a target objective of $81.78, but we anticipate the bulls to aggressively defend the critical support at $84.25.
ETH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Conversely, if the bulls can drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USD pair can retest the overhead resistance at $155.612.
A breakout of $155.612 is likely to start a new uptrend that can carry the pair to the 50-day SMA at $194 and above it to $250. Therefore, traders can initiate long positions as suggested in our earlier analysis.
XRP is struggling to scale and sustain above the overhead resistance at $0.17468. This shows that the bears are defending this level. If the price turns down from the current levels, the bears will try to sink it below $0.16. If successful, a drop to $0.1275 is possible.
XRP–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
However, the 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a balance between buyers and sellers.
The advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls if the XRP/USD pair breaks above $0.18867, which is the intraday high of March 27. Above this level, a move to the 50-day SMA at $0.216 and above it to $0.25 is possible.
Traders who own long positions can keep a protective stop loss at $0.143. The stops can be trailed higher to $0.16 if the pair breaks out above $0.19.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA for the past few days but has failed to scale above it. This shows that the bears are aggressively defending the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the current levels, a drop to $200 or below it, to $166, is possible.
BCH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Conversely, if the bulls can propel the BCH/USD pair above the 20-day EMA, a move to $247.95 is likely. A breakout of this level is likely to result in a rally to the 50-day SMA at $294 and above it to $350. Therefore, we retain the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) bounced strongly from the support at $146.96 on March 30, but the bulls could not sustain the price above the 20-day EMA at $167.82. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the zone between the 20-day EMA and the horizontal resistance at $185.87.
BSV–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below the support at $146.96, a drop to $120 is possible. Therefore, the traders can protect their long positions with the stop loss at $146.
Conversely, if the bulls can carry the price above $185.87, a move to $260 is possible. There is resistance at the 50-day SMA, but we expect it to be crossed.
Litecoin (LTC) is stuck between the 20-day EMA and the support at $35.8582. If the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA at $40.69, a retest of $43.67 is possible. A break above this will signal the start of a new uptrend.
LTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Therefore, the traders can buy on a close (UTC time) above $43.67 and keep a stop loss at $35. The first target objective is a rally to the 50-day SMA at $54.16 — and above it, the up move can extend to $63.8769.
However, if the price turns down either from the 20-day EMA or $43.67 and plummets below $35.8582, a drop to $30 is likely.
EOS has extended its stay inside the $2.0632-$2.4001 range. After this tight range trading, we anticipate a range expansion within the next few days. It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout. Hence, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before taking a trade.
EOS–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the EOS/USD pair breaks above the overhead resistance at $2.4001, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls. Above this level, a move to the 50-day SMA at $3.20 or above it, to $3.86, is likely. Hence, we have retained the buy proposed in an earlier analysis.
Conversely, if the range expands to the downside and slips below the support at $2.0632, a drop to $1.7213 is possible.
Binance Coin (BNB) is currently stuck between the 20-day EMA and the horizontal support at $10.8427. If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, a move to $13.65 or above it, to the downtrend line, is possible.
BNB–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
We anticipate the bears to defend the zone between $13.65 and the downtrend line. A break above this zone will be the first sign that the advantage is tilting in favor of the bulls.
However, if the BNB/USD pair turns down from $13.65 or the downtrend line, it might spend some more time in consolidation. The pair will turn negative on a break below $10.8427.
Tezos (XTZ) has been trading between $1.4453 and $1.955 for the past few days. Though the bulls have managed to defend the support at $1.4453, they have not been able to push the price above the 20-day EMA, which suggests a lack of buying at higher levels.
XTZ–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls again fail to scale the price above the 20-day EMA, a retest of $1.4453 is likely. If this support breaks, it will complete a small descending triangle pattern, which can drag the price toward the recent lows.
Conversely, if the XTZ/USD pair rises above the 20-day EMA, a move to $1.955 is possible. The pair will pick up momentum on a break above the downtrend line.
Therefore, the traders can wait for the price to close (UTC time) above the downtrend line before initiating long positions. The stops can be kept at $1.40 and the first target objective is the 50-day SMA at $2.43 — and if this is crossed, the next level to watch out for is $3.20.
LEO–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Though the bulls have maintained the price above the breakout level of $1.04 for the past two days, the failure to run up shows hesitation at higher levels. If the LEO/USD pair fails to pick up momentum, the bears are likely to sink it back below $1.04.
If the price slides below $1.04, the first support is at the 20-day EMA at $1.016, and the second at $1. If the bulls fail to defend these support levels, the pair is likely to dip to the 50-day SMA at $0.987 or below it, to $0.95. We suggest traders trail the stops on the long positions to $0.097.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.