Some experts say that the crypto winter is over, while other state that the current rally has no real foundation.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
After the recent rally in crypto markets, most analysts believe that the bear market is over. Barry Silbert, Digital Currency Group founder and CEO, opined that the crypto winter is over and the markets have entered a “crypto spring.” Silbert pointed out that institutional involvement has grown a lot since the 2017 bull phase, which is the cause of his bullish stance.
Contrary to this opinion, blockchain researcher Tone Vays said that he does not trust the current rally as it is not backed by considerable external money investing in crypto markets. According to him, the existing long-term investors have supported the rally from the lows and if their conviction waivers, the markets can plunge once again. Still, he advises people to hold “some bitcoin.”
We believe that the bear market is over and the markets will form a higher base during the next fall. However, we are against chasing prices higher. Instead, we believe that the markets will give enough opportunities to buy on dips. Hence, traders should be patient and buy when the risk to reward ratio is in their favor.
Let’s take a look at the charts and see if we find any buying opportunities at current levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of the 20-day EMA after struggling to sustain above it for the past few days. This shows fresh demand at higher levels. If the price maintains above $8,120, the bulls will try to push it to $9,053.12. A breakout of this level will invalidate the head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a positive sign. The next target to watch on the upside is $10,000.
On the other hand, if the BTC/USD pair fails to sustain above the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink it to the neckline of the H&S pattern. If the price breaks down and closes (UTC time frame) below the neckline, it will complete the H&S pattern that has a target objective of $5,371.12.
However, the bulls might try to provide support close to $7,413.46 and below it at the 50-day SMA. If both these supports break down, a fall to $5,900 is probable where we expect strong buying. Currently, we do not find a reliable buy setup, hence, we do not suggest a trade in it.
Ethereum (ETH) is stuck inside a large range of $225.39 and $280. The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that the consolidation might continue for a few more days.
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the 20-day EMA. It will now try to move up to $261.59 and above it to $280. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $280 might propel it to $322.06 and above it to $335.
However, if the pair fails to break out of $280, the bears will try to sink it back to $225.39. A breakdown of this support and the 50-day SMA will attract further selling. The next support on the downside is way lower at $167.20. We do not find any reliable buy setups at the current levels, hence, we are neutral on the digital currency.
The bulls have been trying to keep Ripple (XRP) inside the symmetrical triangle but are facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA. For the past two days, the cryptocurrency has formed inside day candlestick pattern, which shows that the volatility is shrinking.
Presently, the bulls are trying to push the XRP/USD pair above the 20-day EMA. If successful, a move to $0.43196 and above it to the resistance line of the triangle is possible. Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the pair below the strong support of $0.35660. Therefore, traders holding long position can keep the stop loss at $0.35.
Litecoin (LTC) continues to be in a strong uptrend. It easily climbed above the resistance line of the ascending channel, which shows strong demand. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the overbought zone, which confirms that the bulls are in command.
There is a minor resistance at $140.3450. If the LTC/USD pair struggles to break out and sustain above it, traders can book partial profits closer to $140 and trail the remaining long position with stops just below the 20-day EMA. As the moving average moves up, stops can be raised higher. The target to watch on the upside is $158.91 and above it $184.7940.
The digital currency will lose momentum if it turns down and slides back into the ascending channel. A break below the 20-day EMA will be a negative sign and can attract further selling.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA for the past few days. We should soon see a large range move either to the upside or to the downside. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above the 20-day EMA can carry the price to $451 and above it to the resistance line of the ascending channel.
On the other hand, if the BCH/USD pair turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it can correct to the support line of the channel. We anticipate strong buying at this level. If the price rebounds sharply from it, we might suggest a long position. The stop loss can be kept just below the channel. However, if the pair plunges below the channel, it will turn negative and can drop to $280.
EOS is finding support at the 50-day SMA, which is sloping up and is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA, which has started to turn down. This shows that volatility is tightening. We should soon see the volatility expand. However, it is difficult to predict the direction of the expansion. Hence, we can not take any predetermined action.
If volatility expands to the upside and the EOS/USD pair climbs above the 20-day EMA and $6.8299, it can move up to the resistance line of the channel and above it to $8.6503. As the risk to reward ratio of this trade is attractive, we maintain the buy proposed in an earlier analysis.
On the other hand, if the bears sink the pair below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to the support line of the channel. If this breaks down, a fall to $4.4930 is probable.
Binance Coin (BNB) has broken out of the downtrend line and has triggered the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. It can now move up to $38.6463356 and above it to the resistance line. If the bulls can push the price above the resistance line, a rally to $46.1645899 is possible. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in positive territory, which shows that bulls have the upper hand.
Contrary to our assumption, if the BNB/USD pair fails to sustain above the downtrend line the bears will try to sink it below the 20-day EMA. If successful, the next stop on the downside is the 50-day SMA. This has acted as strong support in the past few months, hence, we expect it to hold. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $28.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally for the past three days. Though this is a positive sign, the failure of the bulls to secure a strong bounce shows a lack of buyers at higher levels.
If the bears plunge the BSV/USD pair below $176.083 and the 20-day EMA, the uptrend will lose momentum. The next support is at $152.015, which is 50% retracement level of the recent rally. If this support also gives way, the fall can extend to $134.360.
Contrary to our assumption, if the pair rebounds sharply from the current levels or from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to carry it to $240, above which a retest of the lifetime highs is probable. The digital currency will pick up momentum after it sustains above $254.
Stellar (XLM) is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA. If the bulls fail to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink it below the strong support of $0.11507853.
If the XLM/USD pair breaks down of $0.11507853, it can correct to $0.08558676, but if the bulls succeed in pushing the pair above the 20-day EMA, it can rally to $0.14861760. This is a critical resistance. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above this level will complete an inverse H&S pattern that has a target objective of $0.22466773. We will wait for the price to sustain above $0.14861760 before proposing a trade in it.
Cardano (ADA) is range-bound between the 50-day SMA and $0.10. It sharply bounced off the 50-day SMA on June 10 and is nearing the overhead resistance of $0.10. A breakout and close above $0.10 will complete the rounding bottom pattern that has a target objective of $0.22466773.
Previously, the cryptocurrency had broken out of $0.10 on three occasions but failed to sustain it. Therefore, we will wait for the price to break out and close (UTC time frame) above $0.10 before suggesting a long position in it.
If, however, the ADA/USD pair fails to breakout and sustain above $0.10, it will extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. It will turn negative if it reverses direction and plummets below the 50-day SMA. The next target to watch on the downside is $0.057898.