Bitcoin has reached $11,000. Can a breakout above it result in FOMO? What are the targets to watch out for?
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Bitcoin’s dominance has reached 58% and its rally has helped the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies cross $300 billion. This rise has been backed by an increase in Bitcoin futures open interest that has hit an all-time high on the CME. The recovery from the lows has also helped bitcoin’s hashrate clock a new high. Both these are bullish signs and indicate that the rally is on firm ground.
A new survey by Moscow-based cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab has stated that 19% of people across the world have bought cryptocurrencies before 2019. For a new asset class, this is a very high and impressive number. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently revealed that he was long on Bitcoin because he considered it a store of value.
While the adoption of cryptocurrencies is increasing, it still has its naysayers. The Reserve Bank of Australia does not expect cryptocurrencies to find wide use in Australia if the existing financial system remains robust. Similarly, Patrick Gaulthier, vice president of Amazon Pay, said that they do not have any plans of creating crypto in the short-term as they do not deal in speculative assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has picked up momentum in the past two days, blowing past $10,000 and reaching $11,000. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is close to the overbought zone. This shows that bulls are in command.
The zone between $10,000 and the resistance line of the ascending channel is a stiff hurdle to cross but with momentum backing the BTC/USD pair, a rally to $12,000 is possible. There is nothing negative on the charts that suggests that the rally will stall at the resistance line of the channel.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears defend the overhead resistance zone, a fall to the 20-day EMA is possible. This is likely to act as strong support, but if it cracks, the next support is at the 50-day SMA. A breakdown of $7413.46 will change the trend from bullish to bearish.
Ethereum (ETH) has broken out of the overhead resistance at $280. This indicates a resumption of the uptrend. The next level to watch on the upside is $322.06, and above it $335. Both the moving averages are trending up and the RSI is close to overbought territory, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
Short-term traders can wait for the close (UTC time frame) above $280 and buy with a stop loss of $256. This is a short-term trade and does not have an attractive risk to reward ratio, hence, please use only about 40% of the usual position size.
Contrary to our expectation, if the ETH/USD pair fails to sustain above $280, it can slide to the 20-day EMA. If this level breaks down, it can correct to the 50-day SMA. The trend will turn negative on a breakdown and close below $225.39.
The pullback from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle found support at the 20-day EMA. Currently, Ripple (XRP) is again attempting to break out of the triangle. If successful, it can move up to $0.57259 and above it to $0.6250. With both the moving averages sloping up and the RSI in the positive zone, the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bulls fail to scale above the resistance line of the triangle. In such a case, a drop to 20-day EMA is probable. Traders can wait for four hours and if the XRP/USD pair fails to break out within that time frame, 40% of the positions can be closed. For now, a stop loss on the long position can be trailed to $0.40.
Litecoin (LTC) has been trading in a small range near the overhead resistance of $140.3450 for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are not in a hurry to book profits and they start buying on every minor dip. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is close to the overbought zone, which shows that the bulls have the upper hand.
A breakout and close above $143.3047 can propel the LTC/USD pair to $158.91 and above it to $184.7949. On the contrary, if the pair turns down from the current levels and breaks down of the 20-day EMA, the momentum will weaken. Therefore, traders can protect the remaining long position with a stop loss below 20-day EMA. As the price surges higher, traders can tighten the stops further to protect paper profits.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is again attempting to bounce off the 20-day EMA. If it breaks out of $451, it can rally to the recent highs of $481.99. Above this level, the uptrend can continue to the resistance line of the ascending channel, which might act as a roadblock. However, the cryptocurrency has a history of vertical rallies. If momentum picks up, it can even reach $639 and above it $889.
On the other hand, if the BCH/USD pair struggles to break out of the overhead resistance, it might dip back to the 20-day EMA. It remains bullish as long as both the moving averages are sloping up and the price remains above the moving averages. It will signal a change in trend on a breakdown and close (UTC time frame) below the support line of the channel.
EOS has been holding the 20-day EMA for the past three days but is struggling to bounce off it. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels. If the bulls push the price above $7.2691, a rally to the resistance line of the channel is probable. Above this level, the rally can extend to $8.6503. Traders can maintain the stop loss on the long position at $5.80.
If the bulls fail to push the price higher, the bears will try to break down below the 20-day EMA. If successful, the EOS/USD pair can plummet to the 50-day SMA and below it to the support line of the ascending channel. If this level cracks, the trend will weaken and a fall to $4.4930 is likely. We should see a decisive move within the next three to four days.
Binance Coin (BNB) has again climbed to the overhead resistance of $38.6463356 where it is facing stiff resistance. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above the lifetime highs can propel the cryptocurrency to $46.1645899. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is close to the overbought zone, which suggests that buyers have the upper hand.
However, if the BNB/USD pair reverses direction from the current levels, it can fall to the 20-day EMA and below it to $28. If this level holds, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days but if the support cracks, the next stop is $20. Therefore, traders can keep the stop loss on the long position at $28.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has pulled back from the overhead resistance of $237.390. It can dip to the 20-day EMA, which is likely to act as strong support. Both the moving averages are trending up and the RSI is close to the overbought zone, which shows that bulls are in command. A bounce from the 20-day EMA will again attempt to ascend above the overhead resistance zone of $237.390 to $254. If successful, it can move up to $307.789 and above it to $340.248.
Contrary to our assumption, if the BSV/USD pair plummets below the 20-day EMA, it can drop to $175, which is a strong support. If this level holds, the pair might remain range bound between $175 and $237.390 for a few days. But if the bears sink the price below $175, the trend will turn negative and a drop to $152.015, which is 50% retracement of the recent rally, is probable.
Stellar (XLM) has not been able to participate in the rally and is struggling to breakout of the downtrend line of the descending triangle. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which points to a state of equilibrium.
The trend will turn in favor of the bears if the XLM/USD pair plunges below $0.11507853. The pattern target of this breakdown is $0.06678607 but the pair might find support at $0.0855 or below it at the lows.
On the other hand, if the price breaks out of the downtrend line of the descending triangle, it can move up to $0.14861760. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.14861760 will complete a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. Traders can buy this breakout and close (UTC time frame) based on our earlier recommendation.
Cardano (ADA) is currently range-bound between $0.076254 and $0.10. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above 50, which suggests consolidation in the short term.
If the bears sink the ADA/USD pair below $0.076254, it can dip to the next support at $0.057898. Conversely, if the bulls scale above $0.10, the pair will complete a rounding bottom pattern that can start a new uptrend. Therefore, we retain our buy recommendation given in an earlier analysis.